Sub-Saharan Africa Near-Term Outlook

By Paul Caruana-Galizia, Neptune Economist

Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic renaissance continues. After growing at an average rate of five per cent over the past decade, the IMF projects an acceleration to 5.5 per cent growth among Sub-Saharan economies in the next two years, as developed economies emerge from the crisis. We expect this growth to be sustainable for three broad reasons.

1. Investment and continued domestic demand
In low-income countries, a move towards political stability is enabling massive investments that will continue to drive domestic demand. Since the end of its civil conflict in 2002, Sierra Leone has made important economic changes, expanding its mining production and increasing its investment in infrastructure. Senegal, which has strengthened its democratic institutions since independence, making it one of Africa’s most stable countries, secured $7.8bn of foreign investment to boost output in agriculture, mining, tourism and logistics as part of its 10-year Emerging Senegal Plan, launched in February 2014… continue reading

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Paul Caruana-Galizia is an economist at Neptune Investment Management

Important information: This is not for retail clients. It is intended for investment professionals and is not for forward transmission.

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